About
About Fiscal R-Star
This site estimates, for 36 economies, the real interest rate that would stabilise public debt (fiscal r-star), compares it with the economy’s estimated real neutral rate (monetary r-star), and reports the difference as an indicator of fiscal–monetary tension. The framework follows Bolhuis, Koosakul and Shenai (2024), IMF Working Paper 2024/174.
Disclaimer
This is the beta version of FiscalRStar.com, an independent research website. The calculations, analysis, and views presented here are solely those of the authors and do not represent the views of the International Monetary Fund, its Executive Board, management, or member countries.
Methodology transparency
Two quantities are computed. Neither is a forecast: both are steady-state benchmarks derived from projected fundamentals.
- Fiscal r-star — equation (6)
- r_f* = ḡ + (1 + π̄ + ḡ) · (p̄b / d̄)
- The real interest rate at which the debt-to-GDP ratio is neither rising nor falling, holding the projected primary balance, growth and inflation constant. Growth and inflation enter as decimal rates; the primary balance and debt are each shares of GDP, so their ratio is unit-free. A higher projected debt level lowers fiscal r-star when the primary balance is in surplus, and raises it when in deficit.
- Fiscal–monetary gap — equation (11)
- gap = rₘ* + τ* − r_f*
- A positive gap means the real rate the sovereign faces sits above the rate the fiscal stance can sustain — a configuration of tension. A negative gap indicates slack. The term premium τ* is the spread between the real effective interest rate on government debt and the real policy rate; it is added to the monetary side, one for one in percentage points, because the relevant cost of servicing debt is the longer-maturity rate rather than the short-run neutral rate.
Horizon and vintage
The fiscal inputs are the IMF’s five-year-ahead projections (the last year of the current vintage), so the estimates describe a medium-term steady state rather than current conditions. The IMF publishes new projections in April and October, and the horizon advances by one year with each vintage. Monetary r-star estimates carry the vintage of their source publication, which differs by economy.
Conventions
- Where a source reports a range or band for monetary r-star, the midpoint is recorded.
- Where a source reports a nominal neutral rate, the inflation target is subtracted to obtain the real rate.
- Where an estimate is only available as a chart, the value is measured from the figure rather than estimated by eye, and the method is recorded in the table below.
- Euro-area memberseach have their own fiscal r-star, from their own debt, balance and growth, but share the Euro Area monetary r-star and the ECB’s 2% inflation anchor.
- Figures are shown to two decimal places; the underlying values retain full precision.
Limitations
- Fiscal r-star is a debt-stabilisation benchmark, not a measure of debt sustainability or solvency.
- Monetary r-star estimates come from different institutions using different models and vintages. They are not strictly comparable across economies.
- The identity holds the primary balance fixed while debt varies, so it contains no feedback from debt levels to borrowing costs.
- Trend growth is proxied by projected medium-term growth, which may differ from model-based estimates of potential growth.
The full derivation is set out on the methodology page, and the intellectual context on the literature page.
Data sources
Every figure on this site is either drawn directly from a published source or computed from figures that are. Nothing is estimated by the site itself.
Download the full dataset (Excel)All 36 economies, every input and both results, with definitions and a source for each estimate..xlsxBy variable
| Variable | Unit | Source | Upkeep |
|---|---|---|---|
| d Gross public debt | % of GDP | IMF World Economic Outlook — series GGXWDG_NGDP | automatic |
| p̄b Primary balance | % of GDP | IMF World Economic Outlook — series GGXONLB_NGDP | automatic |
| ḡ Trend growth | % | IMF World Economic Outlook — series NGDP_RPCH | automatic |
| π̄ Inflation target | % | Central-bank announcements; euro-area members use the ECB's 2% target | reviewed |
| rₘ* Monetary r-star | % | Central-bank, IMF and academic estimates — per economy, listed below | reviewed |
| τ* Term premium | pp | Maintained by the research team | reviewed |
“Automatic” variables refresh from the IMF each April and October. “Reviewed” variables are maintained by the research team and updated when a new estimate is published.
Monetary r-star, by economy
This is the judgement-based half of the dataset, so each estimate is listed with its source and how the figure was obtained.
| Economy | rₘ* | Source | Links |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | +1.72% | NY Fed, Holston-Laubach-Williams current estimates, 2026:Q1HLW state-space model | |
| United States | +1.06% | NY Fed, Holston-Laubach-Williams current estimates, 2026:Q1HLW state-space model | |
| Mexico | +2.60% | Banco de Mexico, long-run neutral rate estimate (Recuadro, ~2019)midpoint of 1.8-3.4% real range (nominal 5.6% = real + 3% target) | |
| Brazil | +5.00% | Banco Central do Brasil, Inflation Report Jun 2024, Table 1median across methodologies, 2024Q2 (25-75 pctile 4.7-5.5) | |
| United Kingdom | +1.50% | BoE, C. Mann speech (May 2025), MaPS-implied neutral ratevector-measured nominal neutral 3.49% minus 2% target = 1.49% real | |
| South Africa | +2.50% | SARB Monetary Policy Review, April 2024, Table row 7forecast path 2.1/2.3/2.5/2.7/2.8/2.8/2.5%; terminal (steady-state) = 2.5% (read from table, not a guess) | |
| Nigeria | +0.95% | IMF WP 2025/160 Fig. 1 (via eLibrary)average r* (real) 2023 endpoint, VECTOR-MEASURED off chart | |
| Egypt | +5.50% | IMF Country Report 26/69 (Feb 2026), Fig. 1 (via eLibrary)staff neutral real rate, 2026Q1 endpoint read off chart (~5.5%, just above +5 gridline) | |
| India | +1.00% | RBI Bulletin, Jun 2022 (Revisiting India's Natural Rate)natural rate ~1% | |
| China | +0.75% | User's SSRN paper (abstract_id=5493823), real neutral rate - user-supplied from the sourcemidpoint of -0.5% to 2% real neutral range (per SSRN abstract; user entered it in tracker col G) | |
| Japan | -0.20% | Bank of Japan Review, March 20266-model range, 2025:Q3, midpoint | |
| South Korea | -1.00% | IMF WP 2021/93 'What's in the (R)-Stars for Korea?', Figure 5 (Korea real neutral rate, via eLibrary)2020 endpoint PIXEL-MEASURED at plot border = -1.01% (calibration verified: detected 0-line matched prediction). HLW-based, same framework as US/CAN/EURO. NB 2020 vintage; recent BoK est. ~0.5% | |
| Indonesia | +1.50% | IMF Staff Country Report 2023/222NRIR 1-2%, midpoint | |
| Australia | +1.00% | RBA Bulletin, Sep 2017neutral real rate 3/4-1 1/4%, midpoint (dated) | |
| New Zealand | -0.60% | RBNZ Analytical Note 2025, Figure 2 (VECM estimate)real neutral rate 2023Q4 endpoint, VECTOR-MEASURED = -0.57% | |
| Euro area (21 members) | -0.01% | NY Fed, Holston-Laubach-Williams current estimates, 2026:Q1HLW state-space model |
Euro-area members are represented by the single Euro Area estimate they share. Where an economy publishes no official estimate, the figure is taken from the most authoritative independent study available and labelled accordingly.
Update policy
- Fiscal inputs refresh automatically with each IMF vintage (April and October).
- Monetary r-star, term premia and inflation targets are reviewed when new estimates are published, and at each IMF release.
- Corrections are applied at the source data, so the site and the underlying register never diverge.
Version history
- v1.0 beta — First public release: 36 economies with live fiscal–monetary gaps, per-country detail, and adjustable scenario inputs.
- v0.2— Real IMF data replaced the illustrative sample; monetary r-star collected and sourced for every economy.
- v0.1— Initial site: map, country panel, methodology and literature pages.
Date of latest update
2026 · proj. 2031
Website built by Victor Matsumoto.